As prediction markets approach $1.2 trillion in annual volume, Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) and Coinbase Global (NASDAQ: COIN) may emerge as long-term winners.
In contrast to the $440 million in revenue and $47 billion in volume that are expected to be reported this year, Clear Street projects that the entire addressable market for yes/no exchanges will reach $14 billion by 2030 with an annual turnover of $1.2 trillion.
The research firm points out that while longer-range estimates might turn out to be overly conservative due to a lack of recognition of the significance of historical and current data produced by event contract exchanges, some near-term prediction market forecasts may be prone to hope and hype, overstating the industry's short-term outlook.
According to Clear Street, prediction markets operators may eventually evolve into big data and analytics vendors, which could increase their overall addressable market, increase use cases, and encourage more seasoned market players to accept event contracts.
Prediction markets are about to see a breakthrough year
According to Clear Street analyst Owen Lau, 2026 will be a "breakthrough year" for prediction markets, with rising revenue and heightened competition anticipated to be two of the year's defining characteristics.
According to Lau, Circle and Coinbase have the infrastructure, settlement services, and regulatory expertise necessary to succeed in the prediction market. Furthermore, both companies have well-established, sizable clientele, some of whom are already showing interest in the prediction market.
In particular, Circle is the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, which is the second-largest digital currency of its kind, only surpassed by Tether. Because stablecoins like USDC enable efficient account financing and settlement, they are already widely utilized on event contract systems.
Lau points out that Circle's treasury offerings and liquidity infrastructure might grow in tandem with prediction markets.
Coinbase May Be the Goliath of the Prediction Market
Coinbase recently announced its entry into the prediction market with a cooperation with Kalshi, solidifying that overture with the acquisition of The Clearing Company. Clear Street listed Coinbase as one of its top three fintech picks for 2026.
According to Clear Street, Coinbase is the obvious winner in the previously mentioned analytics/data evolution scenario since the cryptocurrency brokerage company has the technology, user base, and compliance expertise required to take advantage of that advancement.
Coinbase stated in its 2026 Crypto Market Outlook that prediction markets are entering a "transformative period." Although it didn't go into great detail about a company-specific analytics/data scenario, it did note that fragmentation risk rises as the yes/no industry develops, which may increase the need for curated aggregation offerings.
